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“Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.

Сотрудничество и соперничество Канемана и Клайна

Kahneman, Daniel, and Gary Klein. “Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree.” American Psychologist 64, no. 6 (2009): 515–26.

“Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?” Интервью Даниэля Канемана и Гари Клайна. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.

Применимость профессионализма в разных областях

Shanteau, James. “Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 53, no. 2 (1992): 252–66.

“Why Task Domains (Still) Matter for Understanding Expertise.” Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 4, no. 3 (2015): 169–75.

Tetlock, Philip E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005.

(Не)применимость интуиции в принятии кадровых решения

Dana, Jason, Robyn Dawes, and Nathanial Peterson. “Belief in the Unstructured Interview: The Persistence of an Illusion.” Judgment and Decision Making 8, no. 5 (2013): 512–20.

Heath, Dan, and Chip Heath. “Why It May Be Wiser to Hire People Without Meeting Them.” Fast Company, June 1, 2009.

Moore, Don A. “How to Improve the Accuracy and Reduce the Cost of Personnel Selection.” California Management Review 60, no. 1 (2017): 8–17.

Schmidt, Frank L., and John E. Hunter. “The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 85 Years of Research Findings.” Psychological Bulletin 124, no. 2 (1998): 262–74.

Глава 4

Сверхуверенность

Moore, Don A., and Paul J. Healy. “The Trouble with Overconfidence.” Psycho-logical Review 115, no. 2 (2008): 502–17.

Svenson, Ola. “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Drivers?” Acta Psychologica 47, no. 2 (1981): 143–48.

Thaler, Richard H., and Cass R. Sunstein. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008.

Ошибка планирования и неоправданный оптимизм

Buehler, Roger, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross. (1994). “Exploring the ‘Planning Fallacy’: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 67, no. 3 (1994): 366–81.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl. “Underestimating Costs in Public Works, Error or Lie?” Journal of the American Planning Association 68, no. 3 (Summer 2002): 279–95.

Frankel, Jeffrey A. “Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications.” NBER working paper no. 17239, 2011.

Сверхточность

Alpert, Marc, and Howard Raiffa.“A Progress Report on the Training of Prob-ability Assessors.” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, 294–305. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. “Managing Overconfidence.” Sloan Management Review 33, no. 2 (1992): 7–17.

Недооценка конкурентов

Cain, Daylian M., Don A. Moore, and Uriel Haran. “Making Sense of Overconfidence in Market Entry.” Strategic Management Journal 36, no. 1 (2015): 1–18.

Dillon, Karen. “‘I Think of My Failures as a Gift.’” Harvard Business Review, April 2011, 86–89.

“How Companies Respond to Competitors: A McKinsey Survey.” McKinsey Quarterly, April 2008.

Moore, Don A., John M. Oesch, and Charlene Zietsma.“What Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions.” Organization Science 18, no. 3 (2007): 440–54.

Rumelt, Richard P. Good Strategy/Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters. New York: Crown Business, 2011.

Эволюционная обусловленность искажений

Santos, Laurie R., and Alexandra G. Rosati. “The Evolutionary Roots of Human Decision Making,” Annual Review of Psychology 66, no. 1 (2015): 321–47.

Польза оптимизма

Rosenzweig, Phil. “The Benefits – and Limits – of Decision Models.” McKinsey Quarterly, February 2014, 1–10.

Left Brain, Right Stuff: How Leaders Make Winning Decisions. New York: Public Affairs, 2014.

Разное

Graser, Marc. “Epic Fail: How Blockbuster Could Have Owned Netflix.” Variety, November 12, 2013.

Глава 5

Polaroid

Rosenbloom, Richard S., and Ellen Pruyne. “Polaroid Corporation: Digital Im-aging Technology in 1997.” Harvard Business School case study no. 798–013, October 1977. https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=24164.

Tripsas, Mary, and Giovanni Gavetti.“Capabilities, Cognition, and Inertia: Evidence from Digital Imaging.” Strategic Management Journal 21, no. 10 (2000): 1147–61.

Инерционность в распределении ресурсов

Bardolet, David, Craig R. Fox, and Don Lovallo.“Corporate Capital Allocation: A Behavioral Perspective.” Strategic Management Journal 32, no. 13 (2011): 1465–83.

Birshan, Michael, Marja Engel, and Olivier Sibony. “Avoiding the Quicksand: Ten Techniques for More Agile Corporate Resource Allocation.” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2013, 6.

Hall, Stephen, and Conor Kehoe. “How Quickly Should a New CEO Shift Corporate Resources?” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2013, 1–5.

Hall, Stephen, Dan Lovallo, and Reinier Musters. “How to Put Your Money Where Your Strategy Is.” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2012, 11.

Привязка

Englich, Birte, Thomas Mussweiler, and Fritz Strack.“Playing Dice with Criminal Sentences: The Influence of Irrelevant Anchors on Experts’ Judicial Decision Making.” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 32, no. 2 (2006): 188–200.

Galinsky, Adam D., and Thomas Mussweiler.“First Offers as Anchors: The Role of Perspective-Taking and Negotiator Focus.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81, no. 4 (2001): 657–69.

Strack, Fritz, and Thomas Mussweiler.“Explaining the Enigmatic Anchoring Effect: Mechanisms of Selective Accessibility.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 73, no. 3 (1997): 437–46.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuris-tics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.