Думай и не ошибайся! Как избежать ловушек сознания - Оливье Сибони

Наращивание вовлеченности

Drummond, Helga. “Escalation of Commitment: When to Stay the Course.” Academy of Management Perspectives 28, no. 4 (2014): 430–46.

Royer, Isabelle. “Why Bad Projects Are So Hard to Kill.” Harvard Business Review, February 2003, 48–56.

Staw, Barry, M. “The Escalation of Commitment: An Update and Appraisal.” In Organizational Decision Making, edited by Zur Shapira, 191–215. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.

“The Escalation of Commitment to a Course of Action.” Academy of Management Review 6, no. 4 (1981): 577–87.

GM Saturn

Ritson, Mark. “Why Saturn Was Destined to Fail.” Harvard Business Review, October 2009, 2–3.

Taylor, Alex, III. “GM’s Saturn Problem.” Fortune, December 2014.

Редкие случаи прекращения финансирования

Feldman, Emilie, Raphael Amit, and Belen Villalonga. “Corporate Divestitures and Family Control.” Strategic Management Journal 37, no. 3 (2014) 429–46.

Horn, John T., Dan P. Lovallo, and S. Patrick Viguerie. “Learning to Let Go: Making Better Exit Decisions.” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2006, 64.

Lee, Donghun, and Ravi Madhavan. “Divestiture and Firm Performance: A Meta-Analysis.” Journal of Management 36, no. 6 (February 2010): 1345–71

Прорывные технологии

Christensen, Clayton M. The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.

NetflixиQwikster

Wingfield, Nick, and Brian Stelter. “How Netflix Lost 800,000 Members, and Good Will.” New York Times, October 24, 2011.

Искажение статус-кво

Kahneman, Daniel, Jack L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler. “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, no. 1 (1991): 193–206.

Samuelson, William, and Richard Zeckhauser. “Status Quo Bias in Decision Making.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1, no. 1 (1988): 7–59.

Примечания

– крупные корпорации отказываются от провальных инициатив куда реже, чем можно ожидать: McKinsey study of 463 executives, 2009. See “Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?” Interview with Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.

– Согласно исследованию принятых решений о закрытии бизнеса: Horn, John T., Dan P. Lovallo, and S. Patrick Viguerie. “Learning to Let Go: Making Better Exit Decisions.” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2006, 64.

Глава 6

Неприятие риска

Koller, Tim, Dan Lovallo, and Zane Williams. “Overcoming a Bias Against Risk.” McKinsey Quarterly, August 2012, 15–17.

Недостаток инноваций в крупных корпорациях

Armental, Maria. “U. S. Corporate Cash Piles Drop to Three-Year Low.” Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2019.

Christensen, Clayton M., and Derek C. M. van Bever. “The Capitalist’s Dilemma.” Harvard Business Review, June 2014, 60–68.

Grocer, Stephen. “Apple’s Stock Buybacks Continue to Break Records.” New York Times, August 1, 2018.

Неприятие потерь

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–91.

Ретроспективное искажение

Baron, Jonathan, and John C. Hershey. “Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54, no. 4 (1988): 569–79.

Fischhoff, Baruch. “An Early History of Hindsight Research.” Social Cognition 25, no. 1 (2007): 10–13.

“Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1, no. 3 (1975): 288–99.

Fischhoff, Baruch, and Ruth Beyth. “‘I Knew It Would Happen’: Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13, no. 1 (1975): 1–16.

Ловушка сюжета и ретроспективное искажение в трудах по истории

Risi, Joseph, et al. “Predicting History.” Nature Human Behaviour 3 (2019): 906–12.

Rosenberg, Alex. How History Gets Things Wrong: The Neuroscience of Our Addiction to Stories. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2018.

Приход Черчилля к власти в 1940 году

Shakespeare, Nicholas. Six Minutes in May: How Churchill Unexpectedly Became Prime Minister. London: Penguin Random House, 2017.

Ретроспективное искажение в организациях

Thaler, Richard H. Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. New York: W. W. Norton, 2015.

Парадокс «робкий выбор, смелый прогноз»

Kahneman, Daniel, and Dan Lovallo. “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking.” Management Science 39, no. 1 (1993): 17–31.

March, James G., and Zur Shapira. “Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking.” Management Science 33, no. 11 (1987): 1404–18.

Примечания

– самый значительный вклад психологии в поведенческую экономику: Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, 360.

Глава 7

Капитализм и дальняя перспектива

Barton, Dominic, and Mark Wiseman. “Focusing Capital on the Long Term.”McKinsey Quarterly, December 2013.

Business Roundtable. “Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation.” August 19, 2019. Available at https://opportunity.businessroundtable.org/wp-content/ uploads/2020/02/BRT-Statement-on-the-Purpose-of-a-Corporation-with-Signatures-Feb2020.pdf.

Fink, Laurence D. Letter to CEOs. March 21, 2014.

George, Bill. “Bill George on Rethinking Capitalism.” McKinsey Quarterly, December 2013.

Polman, Paul. “Business, Society, and the Future of Capitalism.” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2014.

Porter, Michael, and Marc Kramer. “Creating Shared Value.” Harvard Business Review, January 2011.

Управленческая близорукость

Asker, John, Joan Farre-Mensa, and Alexander Ljungqvist. “Corporate Investment and Stock Market Listing: A Puzzle?” Review of Financial Studies 28, no. 2 (February 2015): 342–90.

Graham, John R., Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal. “Value Destruction and Financial Reporting Decisions.” Financial Analysts Journal 62, no. 6 (2006): 27–39.