Законы эпидемий. Как развиваются и почему прекращаются эпидемии болезней, финансовые кризисы, вспышки насилия и модные тренды - Адам Кучарски

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https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin. 18 декабря 2017 года цена составляла 19 395 долларов США, а 16 декабря 2018 года – 3220 долларов США.

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Rodrigue J.-P., ‘Stages of a bubble’, extract from The Geography of Transport Systems (Routledge, New York, 2017). https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=9035.

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Kindleberger C.P. et al., Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 1978).

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Odlyzko A., ‘Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s’, 2010.

103

Sandbu M., ‘Ten years on: Anatomy of the global financial meltdown’, Financial Times, 9 August 2017.

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Alessandri P. et al., ‘Banking on the State’, Bank of England Paper, November 2009.

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Elliott L. and Treanor J., ‘The minutes that reveal how the Bank of England handled the financial crisis’, The Guardian, 7 January 2015.

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Интервью автора с Нимом Аринаминпати, август 2017 года.

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Brauer F., ‘Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future’, Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017; Bartlett M.S., ‘Measles Periodicity and Community Size’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, 1957.

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Heesterbeek J.A., ‘A Brief History of R0 and a Recipe for its Calculation’, Acta Biotheoretica, 2002.

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Smith D.L. et al., ‘Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens’, PLOS Pathogens, 2012.

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Nájera J.A. et al., ‘Some Lessons for the Future from the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (1955–1969)’, PLOS Medicine, 2011. Предложение искоренить оспу также было высказано в 1954 году, но не вызвало особого энтузиазма.

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О репродуктивном числе: Heesterbeek J.A., ‘A Brief History of R0 and a Recipe for its Calculation’, Acta Biotheoretica, 2002.

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Оценки репродуктивного числа: Fraser C. et al., ‘Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings’, Science, 2009; WHO Ebola Response Team, ‘Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa – The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections’, NEJM, 2014; Riley S. et al., ‘Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong’, Science, 2003; Gani R. and Leach S., ‘Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations’, Nature, 2001; Anderson R.M. and May R.M., Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1992); Guerra F.M. et al., ‘The basic reproduction number (R0) of measles: a systematic review’, The Lancet, 2017.

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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, ‘Transmission of Measles’, 2017. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/transmission.html.

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Fine P.E.M. and Clarkson J.A., ‘Measles in England and Wales – I: An Analysis of Factors Underlying Seasonal Patterns’, International Journal of Epidemiology, 1982.

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‘How Princess Diana changed attitudes to AIDS’, BBC News Online, 5 April 2017.

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May R.M. and Anderson R.M., ‘Transmission dynamics of HIV infection’, Nature, 1987.

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Eakle R. et al., ‘Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in an era of stalled HIV prevention: Can it change the game?’, Retrovirology, 2018.

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Anderson R.M. and May R.M., Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1992).

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Fenner F. et al., ‘Smallpox and its Eradication’, World Health Organization, 1988.

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Wehrle P.F. et al., ‘An Airborne Outbreak of Smallpox in a German Hospital and its Significance with Respect to Other Recent Outbreaks in Europe’, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 1970.

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Woolhouse M.E.J. et al., ‘Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: Implications for the design of control programs’, PNAS, 1997. Идея была позаимствована у экономиста XIX века Вильфредо Парето, который заметил, что 20 % итальянцев владеют 80 % земель.

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Endo A. et al., ‘Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China’, Wellcome Open Research, 2020; Adam D.C. et al., ‘Clustering and superspreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Hong Kong’, Nature Med, 2020.

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Lloyd-Smith J.O. et al., ‘Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence’, Nature, 2005.

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Worobey M. et al., ‘1970s and “Patient 0” HIV-1 genomes illuminate early HIV/AIDS history in North America’, Nature, 2016.

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Cumming J.G., ‘An epidemic resulting from the contamination of ice cream by a typhoid carrier’, Journal of the American Medical Association, 1917.

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Bollobas B., ‘To Prove and Conjecture: Paul Erdős and His Mathematics’, American Mathematical Monthly, 1998.

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Potterat J.J., et al., ‘Sexual network structure as an indicator of epidemic phase’, Sexually Transmitted Infections, 2002.

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Watts D.J. and Strogatz S.H., ‘Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks’, Nature, 1998.

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Barabási A.L. and Albert R., ‘Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks’, Science, 1999. Похожая идея высказывалась в 1970-х годах, когда физик Дерек Джон де Солла Прайс анализировал научные публикации. Он предположил, что большая дисперсия в количестве цитирований может быть следствием предпочтительного присоединения: вероятность цитирования статьи возрастает, если ее уже часто цитируют. Price D.D.S., ‘A General Theory of Bibliometric and Other Cumulative Advantage Processes’, Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 1976.

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Liljeros F. et al., ‘The web of human sexual contacts’, Nature, 2001; de Blasio B. et al., ‘Preferential attachment in sexual networks’, PNAS, 2007.

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