Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Нил Фергюсон

Badr et al., «Association Between Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the USA: A Mathematical Modelling Study», Lancet Infectious Diseases, July 1, 2020, pp. 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 305533. См. также: Stan Oklobdzija, «Visualization of NYT COVID-19 Data», University of California, San Diego, August 14, 2020, http://acsweb.ucsd.edu/~soklobdz/covid_map.html.

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Hassani M. Behroozh and Yutong (Yuri) Song, «COVID-19 Application», ShinyApps, https://behroozh.shinyapps.io/COVID19/.

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Denise Lu, «The True Coronavirus Toll in the U. S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000», New York Times, August 13, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deathsus.html.

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National Center for Health Statistics, «Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19», https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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Charles Tallack, «Understanding Excess Mortality: Comparing COVID-19’s Impact in the UK to Other European Countries», Health Foundation, June 30, 2020, https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/comparing-covid19impactintheuktoeuropean-countries.

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«Coronavirus Tracked: The Latest Figures as Countries Fight COVID-19 Resurgence», Financial Times, August 14, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8–5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938.

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Era Iyer, «Some Are Winning – Some Are Not: Which States and Territories Do Best in Beating COVID-19?» End Coronavirus, https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states?itemId=wja54gdfp032z0770ls4y81fw8cq66.

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Tomas Pueyo, «Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now», Medium, March 10, 2020, https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-todayorpeople-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca.

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Jacob B. Aguilar et al., «A Model Describing COVID-19 Community Transmission Taking into Account Asymptomatic Carriers and Risk Mitigation», MedRxiv, August 11, 2020: pp. 1-32, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20037994; Sanche et al., «High Contagiousness».

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Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.

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См., напр.: Arnaud Fontanet et al., «Cluster of COVID-19 in Northern France: A Retrospective Closed Cohort Study», MedRxiv, April 23, 2020, pp. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20071134.

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«COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios», CDC, July 10, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html.

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Kim Jeong-min et al., «Identification of Coronavirus Isolated from a Patient in Korea with COVID-19», Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 11, no. 1 (February 2020), pp. 3–7, https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.1.02; Joshua L. Santarpia et al., «Aerosol and Surface Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, June 3, 2020, pp. 1-19, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2.

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Valentyn Stadnytskyi et al., «The Airborne Lifetime of Small Speech Droplets and Their Potential Importance in SARS-CoV2 Transmission», PNAS 117, no. 22 (June 2, 2020), pp. 11875-11877, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006874117; Lydia Bourouiba, «Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19», Journal of the American Medical Association (henceforth JAMA) 323, no. 18 (March 26, 2020), pp. 1837–1838, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4756.

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Jonathan Kay, «COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons», Quillette, April 23, 2020, https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid19superspreader-eventsin28countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/; Lidia Morawska and Donald K. Milton, «It Is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19», Clinical Infectious Diseases, July 6, 2020, pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa939.

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Kimberly A. Prather, Chia C. Wang, and Robert T. Schooley, «Reducing Transmission of SARS-CoV2», Science 368, no. 6498, June 26, 2020, pp. 1422–1424, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6197; Richard O. J. H. Stutt et al., «A Modelling Framework to Assess the Likely Effectiveness of Facemasks in Combination with ‘Lock-Down’ in Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic», Proceedings of the Royal Society 476, no. 2238 (June 10, 2020), pp. 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376. Неубедительные аргументы против масок: Graham P. Martin, Esmée Hanna, and Robert Dingwall, «Face Masks for the Public During COVID-19: An Appeal for Caution in Policy», SocArXiv, April 25, 2020, pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uyzxe.

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Qian Hua et al., «Indoor Transmission of SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, April 7, 2020, pp. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058.

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Jordan Peccia et al., «SARS-CoV2 RNA Concentrations in Primary Municipal Sewage Sludge as a Leading Indicator of COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics», MedRxiv, June 12, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20105999; Li Yun-yun, Wang Jixiang, and Chen Xi, «Can a Toilet Promote Virus Transmission? From a Fluid Dynamics Perspective», Physics of Fluids 32, no. 6, June 16, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0013318.

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Авторы многочисленных статей следовали этой гипотезе, вероятно, неправильной. См.: Wang Jingyuan et al., «High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19», May 22, 2020, pp. 1-33, available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551767; Ma Yueling et al., «Effects of Temperature Variation and Humidity on the Mortality of COVID-19 in Wuhan», MedRxiv, March 18, 2020, pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036426; Qi Hongchao et al., «COVID-19 Transmission in Mainland China Is Associated with Temperature and Humidity: A Time-Series Analysis», MedRxiv, March 30, 2020, pp. 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.30.20044099; Mohammad M. Sajadi et al., «Temperature, Humidity and Latitude